Over the past few weeks, market sentiment has undergone a notable shift. As volatility had spread across traditional asset classes, the perceived barrier to entering ‘‘risk-on assets’’ has diminished. When flagship equities such as the “Magnificent 7” are swinging, many investors are beginning to ask: If everything’s volatile, why not own Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is performing more as a store of value, and this is despite the fact that BTC’s market cap is 7.3% the size of Gold.

Amid the broader market noise, institutions like Standard Chartered have reiterated their conviction in Bitcoin, highlighting why they continue to view it as an attractive investment option.

According to analysts at Standard Charted ´´Bitcoin could benefit from rising tariff risks as signs of "U.S. isolationism" begin to shape market sentiment´´.

Bitcoin’s Pullback: A Familiar Pattern

Bitcoin’s recent pullback, while jarring for some, is hardly unprecedented. Drawdowns of 20–30% have been a recurring part of every cycle. In fact, it’s these very corrections that often set the stage for the next leg up. Traders who have weathered multiple cycles understand that temporary retracements often disguise long-term opportunity.

We’ve seen larger drawdowns in the past—often followed by explosive growth. What matters most isn’t avoiding volatility, but how one manages risk within it.

As charted by BitBo, you can see as illuminated in the blue how BTC drawdowns are commonplace and occur every cycle. 14.4.25

Macro Forces at Play: Uncertainty Returns

One of the more significant contributors to recent market shifts has been renewed geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly tied to the evolving stance of the Trump administration on trade policy. The reintroduction of aggressive tariff rhetoric has rattled global markets, with equities, commodities, and crypto assets all reacting to the heightened uncertainty.

When macro risk increases, correlations between assets often rise in the short term. We’ve seen capital rotate into perceived “safe havens,” and speculative assets—crypto included—experience outflows.

Below is a breakdown of some key shifts that we’ve seen in the macro landscape.

Market uncertainty has never been higher in the last 20 years. Data from John Burn-Murdoch.

In a recent interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," Ray Dalio, CIO of Bridgewater Associates, emphasized that the unfolding events signify a broader systemic breakdown, extending beyond a mere trade dispute. He highlighted that current trade policies, rising national debt, and geopolitical tensions could destabilize existing economic and monetary systems, potentially leading to consequences more severe than a recession.

Dalio’s comments reflect a growing unease with the stability of traditional systems—a sentiment that many investors are beginning to share. In this kind of environment, Bitcoin’s appeal becomes more psychological than technical. It's increasingly seen as a way to opt out, to hold something not directly tied to the policies or problems of any one government. That shift in mindset alone is enough to change how and why people allocate to it.

Reported via Reuters, 11.4.25

Last week, President Donald Trump signed legislation overturning an IRS rule that would have expanded the definition of "crypto broker," which could have subjected more individuals and entities in the cryptocurrency space to tax reporting requirements. This move preserves the current regulatory framework, preventing the IRS from requiring developers, miners, and other non-custodial actors to report user transaction data—something many in the crypto industry viewed as unfeasible and overreaching.

Signals of Strength Amid the Noise

Despite the challenging macro backdrop, the crypto industry has continued to advance in key areas. Institutional adoption remains strong. Venture capital is still active, and on-chain metrics continue to improve as well.

A key event that we have our eyes on—and that has largely flown under the radar—is the SEC Crypto Task Force's announcement of four upcoming roundtables focused on digital asset regulation. These sessions could offer early signals on how the regulatory landscape may evolve heading into the second half of the year.

Among the companies expected to be present, Coinbase, Cumberland, DRW and Uniswap. Read further here.

The Narrative Forming: Crypto as Optionality on the Future

What we’re seeing is a battle between the uncertainty of today and the potential of tomorrow. Macro forces may dominate the narrative in the short term, but crypto represents an optionality on a different system—a hedge against legacy inefficiencies, political instability, and centralized risk.

In a relatively recent episode of Just Shilling with Trevor Talley, our CEO Dadi shared Viska’s approach to navigating crypto volatility through a clear, rules-based counterpolicy. He explained how this discipline helped the fund avoid major missteps during uncertain periods, while staying positioned for long-term upside—emphasizing that risk management is ultimately about staying in the game long enough to capture the opportunity.

In times of volatility, it becomes clear who’s speculating and who’s building. The latter group continues to grow.

‘‘Embrace the volatility and realize that we are still early’’ - Dadi Kristjansson

When in doubt— zoom out! Charted via BitBo as of 14.4.25

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